As December rolls in, South African motorists brace for a mix of good and bad news regarding fuel prices. While petrol users may find some relief, diesel and illuminating paraffin prices are set to rise, impacting households and businesses alike. Here’s a breakdown of the upcoming changes, their underlying causes, and what it all means for your budget.
December 2024 Fuel Price Overview
The Central Energy Fund (CEF) has released projections for December 2024, detailing expected changes for various fuel types.
Expected Price Changes
| Fuel Type | Projected Change |
|---|---|
| Petrol 93 Octane | Decrease of 16 cents/litre |
| Petrol 95 Octane | Decrease of 4 cents/litre |
| Diesel 0.05% Sulfur | Increase of 39 cents/litre |
| Diesel 0.005% Sulfur | Increase of 38 cents/litre |
| Illuminating Paraffin | Increase of 39 cents/litre |
Petrol users can expect slight savings, with 93 octane seeing a more significant price drop than 95 octane. On the flip side, diesel and illuminating paraffin users will face rising costs, which could trickle down to higher prices for goods and services dependent on transport and logistics.
Key Factors Behind Fuel Price Shifts
South Africa’s fuel prices are shaped by two primary factors: international crude oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate.
Crude Oil Prices
The global price of Brent crude oil, a key benchmark, stood at $71.44 per barrel in mid-November 2024. Lower oil prices have contributed to the projected petrol price decrease. However, international market fluctuations and production decisions by major oil producers remain significant influencers.
Rand/Dollar Exchange Rate
The exchange rate is another major determinant, as South Africa imports most of its crude oil. As of November, the rand was trading at R18.09 per US dollar. A weaker rand increases import costs, driving up local fuel prices. For December, this weaker exchange rate has partially offset the benefits of declining crude oil prices, especially for diesel and paraffin users.
Comparing November and December Prices
To better understand these changes, here’s a comparison of November 2024 and projected December 2024 fuel prices across inland and coastal regions.
Inland Prices
| Fuel Type | November 2024 (R/L) | Projected December 2024 (R/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 Octane | R20.98 | R20.82 | -16 cents |
| Petrol 95 Octane | R21.30 | R21.26 | -4 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% Sulfur | R18.66 | R19.05 | +39 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% Sulfur | R18.77 | R19.15 | +38 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R12.87 | R13.26 | +39 cents |
Coastal Prices
| Fuel Type | November 2024 (R/L) | Projected December 2024 (R/L) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 Octane | R20.19 | R20.03 | -16 cents |
| Petrol 95 Octane | R20.51 | R20.47 | -4 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% Sulfur | R17.87 | R18.26 | +39 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% Sulfur | R18.01 | R18.39 | +38 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R11.87 | R12.26 | +39 cents |
Petrol users will benefit slightly from these adjustments, but diesel and paraffin users face higher costs that may affect industries and households relying on these fuels.
Impact on South African Motorists
Petrol Relief
For petrol users, the modest price reductions offer some financial breathing room, especially in a month known for high spending.
Diesel and Paraffin Hikes
The increases in diesel and illuminating paraffin prices will likely drive up transportation and heating costs. Industries such as logistics, agriculture, and manufacturing—where diesel is a primary fuel—may pass these costs to consumers, leading to higher prices for goods and services.
The December 2024 fuel price changes are a mixed bag. While petrol price reductions may provide temporary relief for motorists, the increases in diesel and paraffin prices pose challenges, particularly for businesses and lower-income households. Keeping track of these adjustments and planning accordingly can help minimize the impact on your budget.
